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2003-4 Ocean Policy Topic Guide

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Introduction

 

The Business Confidence Disadvantage is a fairly straightforward argument.  The disadvantage argues that government regulation of business increases business' expenses relating to complying with the regulation.  This leaves them less money to invest.  Business investment is arguable the engine of economic growth.

 

The Disadvantage

 

To win the disadvantage, you need to prove each of the following:

 

Uniqueness:

 

De-regulation now (link uniqueness)

De-regulation in the future (link uniqueness)

Businesses perceive a deregulated environment (link uniqueness)

The current environment is business friendly (link uniqueness)

Business confidence strong now (internal link uniqueness)

Business confidence will grow (internal link uniqueness)

Investment increasing (internal link uniqueness)

Productivity increasing (internal link uniqueness)

Economy growing now (impact uniqueness)

Economy will grow in the future (impact uniqueness)

No recession now (impact uniqueness)

 

Links:

 

You may have a number of different links.  These are common links:

 

Businesses oppose regulation

Business needs predictable environments

Business perceive new regulation

Regulation reduces productivity

Regulation reduces investment

Regulation snowballs (link beefer)

 

Internal links:

 

Business confidence key to the economy

Business confidence more important than consumer confidence

Business confidence critical to investment

Business confidence critical to productivity

 

Impacts:

 

Recession causes depression

Depression leads to war

Depression leads to environmental destruction

Depression leads to death

 

Defeating the Disadvantage

 

Answering the disadvantage basically involves refuting at least one of the elements of the disadvantage that has just been referenced.  In addition to these specific arguments, there are a few general things to keep in mind.

 

Threshold issues.  It will always be difficult for the negative to win that one particular regulation will destroy business confidence, particularly the business confidence of the businesses that are un-impacted by the plan, such as the telecommunications industry.  One way that the negative can compensate for this is to tell a story about how the plan will be perceived as shifting the overall de-regulatory stance of the status quo.  Business may perceive that more regulation is coming down the pipe of the affirmative’s regulation were to actually pass.

 

Strong and weak arguments.  You want to attack the disadvantage at the weakest, not the strongest, point.  The strongest point is the link uniqueness – Bush and the Republican-led Congress are generally backing-off of regulation.  The weaker point is the internal link uniqueness – business confidence is generally low right now and the economy is not fairing very well either.  Affirmatives that keep on top of their updates should be able to do substantial damage to the internal link uniqueness of the disadvantage.

 

Updates.  To defeat this disadvantage you need to keep on top of your updates!

 

Business Confidence Shell

A. UNIQUENESS:  BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IS RE-BOUNDING

BLOOMBERG NEWS, 2003 (January 24, p. online)

So, I think as this economy starts coming up we're going to see a productivity engine a lot of people weren't expecting. I think it will give business confidence to invest more, because it's going to be an upside."

B.  LINK:  LOS THREATENS WESTERN BUSINESSES

Doug Bandow is a senior fellow of the Cato Institute. While he was a special assistant to President Reagan, he served as deputy representative to the Third UN Conference on the Law of the Sea, 1994 (DON’T ENDORSE THE LAW OF THE SEA TREATY, http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb-029.html)

If Washington then ratifies the accord, the biggest losers from limiting access to the ocean's vast potential will not be Western businesses, consumers, and taxpayers, though they all would suffer. Instead, those most hurt will be the peoples of the Third World who desperately need economic development. Ignoring rather than endorsing the LOST, and implementing a market- oriented system in its stead, would, in contrast, promote the liberal international economic order upon which the future of all the world's peoples depends.

C. INTERNAL LINKS. STRONG BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IS CRITICAL TO AVOIDING A RECESSION

AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW, 2003 (January 9, p. 24)

Since mid-2002, the leading indicators have been faltering not enough to indicate imminent recession, but there are windows of vulnerability when the economy is vulnerable to being tipped by external shock into recession, and we are now in one of those windows.  "It's like 1980-8; we had a six-month recession, a one-year recovery, then a 16-month recession. "There is a possibility that could happen again. We could be tipped into recession, or tip the other way into growth. If we have a major shock now or in the next few weeks, we could be tipped back onto the recession track. "The key is business confidence. " Corporate America needs confidence.

D. IMPACTS

1. U.S. ECONOMIC DECLINE CAUSES GLOBAL ECONOMIC DECLINE

 

Lawrence Kudlow, Chief Economist, American Skandia, 1996 (THE WASHINGTON TIMES, April 11, p. A14)

 

And what's good for America is good for the rest of the world.  U.S. economic policy, its markets, its economy, and its currency, all stand at the epicenter of the global economy.  So do our free market and pro-democracy values.  When the United States errs, as it did in the late 60s and 70s, the global economy suffers.  When the United States recovers, as it has during the '80s (helped by Britain's Margaret Thatcher) and '90s, so has the wealth of virtually all the other nations. 

 

2. ECONOMIC DECLINE CAUSES WAR

 

Walter Russel Mead, Senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, 1998 (LAS VEGAS REVIEW JOURNAL, August 26, p. 11B)

 

But the biggest impact of the Depression on the United States and on world history wasn't money.  It was blood:  World War II, to be exact.   The Depression brought Adolf Hitler to power in Germany, undermined the ability of moderates to oppose Joesph Stalin's power in Russia, and convinced the Japanese military that the country had no choice but to build an Asian empire, even if that mean war with the United States and Britain.  That's the thing about depressions.  They aren't just bad for your 401(k).  Let the world economy crash far enough, and the rules change. We stop playing "The Price is Right" and start up a new round of "Saving Private Ryan." 

2.  THE DA TURNS THE CASE:  REGULATION UNDERMINES BUSINESS INVESTMENT IN PRO-ENVIRONMENT INITIATIVES

NEW YORK TIMES, 2002 (November 21, p. C1)

Dow and other chemical companies argue that they are investing in practices that allow businesses to grow without harming the environment, and that stricter regulation impedes such steps.

Study Questions

 

1. What is the thesis of the Business Confidence disadvantage?

2. Why does it link well to a number of cases on this topic?

3. What is the best affirmative link turn to the disadvantage?

4. Read the essay on cutting updates and find a card that says that the business confidence disadvantage is unique.

5. What counterplan should you run Business Confidence with?

6.  Write ten answers to the disadvantage.  Instead of using evidence, write a two sentence explanation of each of the answers.

7.  Write blocks to answer four of the answers.  Again, write explanations instead of arguments.

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