Tags: politics09a,

[Fall update file -- August 30] [Politics Link File] [Politics Club]

September 8th Update of This Essay

By Stefan Bauschard

*Introduction

Debaters are returning to school and Congress will soon be returning from recess. As tournaments begin, Congress' activity in the fall, articulated as politics disadvantages, will become the centerpiece of many debates.

In order to research and debate these arguments effectively, debaters and coaches need to have a strong understanding of Congress' fall schedule. 

This essay will cover the current political outlook, the Congressional schedule with an eye toward examining what will likely be the most popular politics disadvantages and any that were written during the summer. Some general conclusions for both the affirmative and the negative follow at the end of the essay.

*The Current Political Outlook

There are two important things about the political climate now that are different from when politics was debated in the spring.

First, Obama's public approval rating has declined substantially (it is now below 50%). He has also burned up a lot of political capital trying to get health care passed.  While the majority of evidence in the spring indicated that Obama could get his agenda items passed, more and more of the evidence now points in the opposite direction. There is now strong evidence that Obama's capital has been significantly depleted and that passing some of his priorities will be very difficult at best.

Second, politics have become substantially more partisan, with Democrats and Republicans unable to agree on just about anything. This non-uniques the common partisanship/infighting links.

That said, let's examine each of the major agenda items.

*Health Care

Getting Congress to agree to pass health care reform is Obama's top legislative priority. It is the issue that he will expect Congress to take up when it returns on the 8th.

Although we do not yet know exactly what will be in the final bill, we do have an idea about some of the options.

Single payer/universal care. The single payer model is the system that exists in Canada and some other European countries where the government runs all health care.  There is not enough politiccal support for this model in Congress and Obama is not continuing to push it.

Public option. This model allows people to buy into a public health care system if they chose to do so.  Obama has pushed this model, but has recently backed down from it.

Health care cooperatives.  Health care cooperatives are government supported non-profit organizations that deliver health care. This is a compromise proposal that has recently emerged and there is a chance that Obama will support it.

There are two basic ways that a health care proposal could pass.

Sixty votes. In order to get health care passed through "normal means," Obama needs to win 60 votes in the Senate. Until the death of Ted Kennedy, there were 60 Democrats in the Senate, though it is unlikely that all 60 would vote for health care reform.  Given the almost inevitable loss of support from a few Democrats, it is likely that Obama will have to win the support of a few moderate Republicans.

Fifty one votes. If Congress uses the budget reconcilliation process to pass health care reform they will only need 51 votes in the Senate. This process is risky because it could generate a lot of political opposition, but there is evidence that says that with the death of Kennedy the Democrats may use this option.

There are good arguments on both sides of the will/won't pass debate:

Will pass:

-Dems will use reconciliation -- Dems only need 51 votes if they use the reconciliation process. There is evidence that the Democrats will use this process.

-Dems can get 61 votes -- The best card I've seen on this argument is from this article.  This is a good uniquness claim to make because it assumes that they can pick up a few moderates and the negative can argue that the plan will alienate moderates that are fiscally conservative.

-Kennedy's death will boost the chances of passage -- Health care reform was one of Ted Kennedy's major goals, and some say that  his passing will increase the chances that many Republicans will be willing to reach an agreement.

-Political capital -- Some pundits claim that Obama has enough political capital to get health care passed.

Won't pass:

-Won't get the votes --There is good evidence that Obama simply doesn't have enough votes to get health care passed.

-Political capital fails -- Despite Obama's heavy investment of political capital in the issue, it continues to face significant opposition and his continued zelous efforts are only working to alienate many, further depleting his capital. This argument is echoed elsewhere.  Some claim that Obama's expenditure of political capital on health care has failed to secure a single Republican vote.

-Double bind -- If health care reform includes a public option many moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats will not vote for it. If it does not include an option, many liberal Democrats will vote against it.

-Lack of presidential leadership -- In order to avoid alienating Congress, Obama has left many of the details of designing a health care reform bill to them. The problem is that this has created a leadership vacuum on the issue.

-Deficit figures -- Last Thursday (8/25), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a report that said the deficit will be $2 trillion more than anticipated. Given this increase in the deficit, Republicans are unlikely to support programs like health care that have high costs.

-Kennedy's death -- Ted Kennedy's death deprives Obama of a vote that he could have counted on in the health care debate. Although Massachusetts will likely appoint another Senator that supports health care reform, it will probably not do so until January, well after the health care vote.  His death is also unlikely to move Repubicans to support health care.

A review of the impact of Kennedy's death on the prospects for health care reform is here.

-Moderate Republicans bailing.  There is recent evidence that moderate Republicans are bailing on a compromise health care bill.

*Cap & Trade

Obama's second most significant legislative priority is passage of cap & trade legislation to control climate change. Obama wants to get this accomplished this fall in order to demonstrate a U.S. commitment to stop climate change before the Copenhagen climate convention in December.

Like health care, there are good arguments on both sides of the will/won't pass debate:

Will pass:

- Political capital -- Some say that Obama has enough political capital to pass cap & trade and that the health care debate will not undermine the prospects of it passing.

- Bipartisan agreement -- Given that some Republicans have supported cap & trade legislation in the past, bipartisan agreement on the issue is certainly possible.

Won't pass:

Health care -- The debate over health care will cause a lot of partisan conflict that will spill-over to the cap & trade debate. Health care is also depleting Obama's political capital, leaving little to spend on cap & trade, and it is generally increasing opposition to government-run programs such as cap & trade.

Lack of votes -- Obama simply doesn't have the votes to pass cap & trade.

A break-down of how particular senators will likely vote on the climate legislation is here.

It is important to note that a cap & trade bill has already passed the House and it now only the Senate needs to agree to it.

*Immigration

Obama has long favored amnesty for illegal immigrants currently residing in the United States. Due to the fact that the issue is very controversial and that he already has a busy legislative schedule with health care reform and cap & trade on the table, Obama has decided to hold off on this issue until 2010. Given that Obama will spend a significant amount of political capital on health care reform and cap & trade between now and then, this disadvantage has zero internal link uniqueness and it is impossible to assess its prospects for passage at this date.

*Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)

In the spring, an article was published in the Washington Quarterly about the need for Obama to spend political capital to secure ratification of the CTBT. This article turned "CTBT good" into a popular politics disadvatange last spring and in the summer.

Although Obama continues to favor CTBT ratification, it is impossible to find any recent evidence that this is a legislative priority for Obama this fall. It will, at the very least, fall behind health care and cap & trade in the agenda.

*Law of the Sea (LOST)

For at least the last five years, debaters have been arguing that the plan would reduce the prospects of the ratification of the Law of the Sea treaty. 

Although both Biden and Obama favor LOST, there is no evidene that they will push for Senate ratification any time soon. Despite this reality, the disadvantage can still make its way into debates because every now and then an article is published by Cliff Kincaid that claims that the Senate is about to vote on ratification, though none of his claims are substantiated by any other news service. John Kerry, head of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, says he wishes that it will be "considered soon."

Nonetheless, since affirmatives have difficulty producing any contrary evidence evidence, this disadvantage can win debates.

*Afghanistan

There has been substantial recent discussion of the deterioriting security situation in Afghanistan and the need for the U.S. to deploy more security forces there.  This discussion is occuring at the same time that U.S. military deaths in Afghanistan are increasing and public support for the war there is on the decline.

Given the unraveling security situation and declining support for the war, there is evidence that Obama needs to invest substantial political capital in securing political support for sustaining the current mission and increasing troop deployments.  Although there is no specific bill on the table, there is some good evidence that this debate will occur this fall, likely making this a popular disadvantage.

The one important thing to note is that unlike other agenda items where Obama needs to secure the support of Republicans to act on his agenda, in this case it is the support of the Democrats that he needs to fight for. Democrats are more likely to support the expansion of social services than the Republicans, making it possible for the affirmative to create a credible link turn story.

A strong case for increased troop deployments is made here and here.

*Middle East Peace Process

There is good recent evidence that Obama is on the brink of negotiating a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians.  Debaters have frequently argued that Obama needs political capital to get this accomplished and that a peace deal is critical to peace throughout the region.

*Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT).

DADT is the military policy that allows gays to serve in the military if they do not disclose their sexuality. If they do disclose their sexuality, they can be discharged.  This policy is heavily criticized and gay rights groups have been pushing Obama to get it repealed.

Although Obama supports a legislative solution, it is not clear that he is spending any political capital on the issue. Nonetheless, I can see someone arguing this as a "surpise" politics disadvantage.

*Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START)

The current nuclear weapons reduction treaty that the U.S. has with Russia expires this fall and Obama has pledged to reach an agreement with Russia on a new treaty by December. This treaty will have to be ratified by the Senate in the spring.

*Debt Ceiling

Congress will have to act to raise the debt ceiling, currently $12.1 trillion by this fall. This will likely be controversial because of growing Republican opposition to increasing debt levels.

*Agenda Implications for the Affirmative

There are a number of implications of the agenda for the affirmative.

First, any disadvantage except health care reform has tremendous uniqueness issues. One, health care reform is up first and Obama will spend a ton of political capital on it. There is good evidence that he won't have any left for other agenda items. Two, if the affirmative can win that health care won't pass they can win that this will destroy the rest of his agenda/political capital.  This evidence is better than any spill-over story that the negative can construct from the plan to another agenda item.

Second, there is good evidence that Obama's political capital is eroding and that his agenda is lacking in focus.  An unfocused agenda makes it difficult to pass any items.

*Agenda Implications for the Negative

First, debate health care. One, it is at the top of the agenda and Obama will spend capital on it in the near-term. This is not only good negative uniqueness evidence, but the fact that he will spend capital on it complicates the uniqueness to other agenda items that you may want to write disadvantages about. Two, since it is at the top of the "docket" you can probably even win agenda trade-off links. Three, there is no way to avoid researching it to beat affirmative teams.

Second, the support of moderate Republicans and fiscally conservative Democrats, also known as "Blue Dogs," is important to Obama's agenda. There is good evidence that spending on social services alienates these groups, putting Obama's agenda on many of the items discussed above at risk.

*A Few Concluding Thoughts

Uniqueness and the direction of the link. For many judges, particularly in high school, uniqueness is more important than the direction of the link.  In other words, once the judge decides that health care, for example, will pass in the status quo, the judge will conclude that there is no value to the affirmative link turns because there is no value to voting affirmative to cause something to pass that will already pass; there is only a risk that the plan could cause health care not to pass.

While this makes some intuitive sense, it is worth noting that uniqueness is never absolute (we can never be certain that health care will pass), and that the affirmative could increase or decrease the prospects. This basic idea supports the argument that the direction of the link matters more than the uniqueness.

But, regardless as to where you stand on the general question of prioritizing uniqueness vs. the link, in politics debates this fall it will be difficult to conclude that any agenda items, particularly the two most significant ones -- health care and cap & trade -- will either definetly pass or not pass. As noted above, there is evidence that health care will come down to one vote, making such absolute predictions impossible. In a closely contested debate it seems the negative will win that there is a 40-52% chance that the agenda item will pass in the status quo, meaning that the direction of the link in these politics debates is very important.

The Senate.  Two of these disadvantages -- Cap & trade and START -- are about the Senate. Running politics disadvantages that are specific to the Senate is a good idea because you can isolate the fallout of the plan in the Senate on the particular agenda item. This allows you to narrow down the link work you do and it makes affirmative turns tat are about the House irrelevant.

Key players.  Most Congresspersons have already decided how they will vote on upcoming fall agenda items. It is the fence-sitters that you want to target with the link.  These are the people that can chane their minds and may do so for many reasons, such as a loss of Obama's political capital.  For example, this New York Times article identifies four senators that are critical to the passage of cap & trade. If you can do specific link work and argue that the plan alienates them, you should be able to win many politics debates.

Think outside the box. Interesting & non-traditional politics disadvantages will usually be mis-answered by the affirmative, so try to think outside the box.  One idea for the social service is to argue that social services are popular with the Democrats, enabling Obama to sustain the war in Afghanistan and that war is bad.