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September 2009 PF Topic Analysis -- Immigration
August 16 2009 by Stefan Bauschard
By Stefan Bauschard [September PF update] [September PF Release]
I have decided to make this September topic analysis free to everyone. In the future, the analysis will only be available to PF and Master subscribers.
The full evidence release will be available tomorrow evening (8/17) and will also included a lecture.
Our 130 page topic briefing is available here.
___________________________
Resolved: United States policy on illegal immigration should focus on attrition through enforcement rather than amnesty.
*Introduction
I'd like to commend the framers/topic choosers for writing an excellent resolution. I think this resolution has a number of benefits.
First, it largely eliminates the question of whether or not the negative can advocate a counterplan in PF debate. This resolution specifies what each side can advocate -- amnesty or enforcement.
Second, unlike the past high school policy debate resolution, it clarifies what the target of the enforcement is -- reduced attrition. The past HS immigration resolution was bidirectional because the affirmative could increase enforcement of strong or weaker immigration laws.
Third, the resolution clearly defines polar ends of the controversy -- amnesty vs. enforcement of anti-immigration laws.
Fourth, this is a contemporary controversy. Presidents have been pushing immigration amnesty bills for at least 5 years and Obama is likely to push it in 2010 (after/if he gets his health care plan).
Fifth, the topic is relatively easy to research and the literature is written in an argumentative style, making it easy for people to research.
That being said, I think that there some fundamental questions that debaters must address when preparing to research and debate the topic.
One, will amnesty increase immigration? Teams cannot attack "amnesty" by simply arguing that that immigration is bad if they cannot win that amnesty will increase immigration. It is hard to see how simply granting amnesty to those living here illegally will increase the argued harms of immigration -- competition for jobs, opportunities for terrorists, environmental pressures. If anything, granting individuals amnesty makes it easier for the government to collect taxes and indirectly keep track of people, reducing many of the harms. Teams that wish to attack amnesty by arguing "immigration bad" will need to win that amnesty increases immigration.
Two, will control reduce immigration? If control fails to reduce immigration, teams cannot win immigration bad against amnesty advocates.
Three, is immigration good or bad? Debaters need to be able argue both sides of the question.
Five, can the teams argue for specific control measures or more specific amnesty grants (for example, only for those currently here)? Although the resolution largely focuses the advocacy of both sides, getting more specific within constraints (a specific amnesty or control proposal) will greatly benefit advocates of both sides.
Basically, amnesty involves a commitment by the government to drop prosecution for those currently living in the U.S. and to facilitate those currently living illegally becoming U.S. citizens. Sometimes this amnesty includes conditions -- a clean record of criminal activity, pursuit of an academic degree, paying a small fine for entering illegally, etc. This is the approach currently being pushed by the Obama administration, though there is substantial resistance to it in the Congress.
Enforcement refers to the different measures that can be adopted to prevent and reduce illegal immigration. There are two basic types of measures. First, the border can be protected. Measure to protect the border include a border fence, more border guards, infared technology, greater tracking systems, federal-state cooperation, and almost an infinite array of standard law enforcement practices applied to the border area. Second, immigration can be reduced by through greater attempts to discover who is here illegally and to remove them. These measures include enforcing legal provisions that restrict the ability of companies to hire illegal aliens and efforts to deport illegal aliens that are discovered.
The issue of providing amnesty versus increasing enforcement has been an issue for decades. Although a lot of animosity is directed against immigrants and the issue is a political lightening rod, mass amnesties have been issued in the past, most recently in the 1980s under Ronald Reagan.
*Will Amnesty Increase Immigration?
Most proponents of amnesty do not claim that amnesty will increase immigration. Amnesty proponents simply claim that since the people are already here and that attempts to control immigration fail, we might as will let them live here legally. They argue that if we given them amnesty it will be easier to collect taxes from them, to integrate them into society, to provide them with an education, and keep them from engaging in illegal activity. Proponents simply argue that there is "no link" between amnesty and immigration, and teams that defend amnesty will want to be good at this basic argument because it answers the common attack on amnesty -- immigration is bad.
Although it is the case that millions of illegal immigrants currently live in the United States and that there are limits to the workability of enforcing anti-immigration laws, it does not mean that immigration would not increase in a world of amnesty.
First, if the U.S. announces a policy of amnesty, as many people as possible will try to immigrate in order to be in the country when the amnesty is granted. Second, the more "amnesties" the U.S. commits to, the more likely it is that potential immigrants will perceive that they will likely eventually be granted amnesty. Third, illegal immigrants who now become legal have social networking infrastructures that will attract more immigrants to the United States. Fourth, empirically, immigration increased when the 1980s amnesty was granted. So, while those that oppose amnesty cannot contest that fact that there is a lot of illegal immigration now, there would arguably be more in a world of amnesty.
*Does enforcement work?
It depends on what you mean by "work."
While the presence of millions of illegal aliens suggests that it does not, there are arguments in favor of the workability of enforcement.
One, there would probably be millions of additional illegal immigrants here if enforcement did not work at all. Two, enforcement may weed out the most dangerous illegal immigrants -- terrorists, organized criminals. Three, enforcement could fail because status quo enforcement efforts are inadequate. If enforcement efforts were expanded and particular enforcement efforts were adopted, it might work a lot better. In the topic release, I've provided a long card that lists many specific suggestions for expanded enforcement. Teams may wish to argue for adoption/expansion of these specific measures.
Finally, I think it is worth noting that amnesty and enforcement are contrasted. Which world likely has more immigrants -- a world of increased enforcement or a world of amnesty? The answer seems somewhat obvious, even if it requires flushing it out with some detailed reasons in the debate.
*Is immigration good or bad?
Although this seems like the central question of the resolution, it is really just a signficant part. As discussed, amnesty proponents can win that amnesty is good without arguing that it will increase immigration.
But, let's assume that one side wins the debate -- a significant increase in immigration in a world of amnesty rather than a world of greater enforcement. At this point, teams have to engage in the immigration good/bad debate.
-- Immigration is Bad
There are some basic arguments made against immigration.
Jobs. This is the argument that gets most play in criticisms of increasing immigration -- immigrants will take jobs that current U.S. citizens want and that this increases the unemployment rates of current Americans. A corrolary to this argument is that if there are more potential workers seeking the same jobs, employers will be able to pay the people they hire lower wages. This leads to a drop in wages for all.
Social services. Expanding immigration expands pressure on social services like health care and education. Many immigrants live in poverty and rely on these services to survive, but they also do not have (good) jobs and pay little into the tax systems that support these services. Expanding the number of people who receive the services threatens to bankrupt them, leaving those who currently rely on the services out in the cold.
Environment. Due to high standards of living, Americans consume far more resources than most individuals living in other countries. If more people migrate to America and their living standards rise, there will be more pressure on the environment. There is particularly good evidence that more Americans means much higher. You can find additional climate impacts here and additional population impacts here.
Terrorism. Greater immigration makes it easier for terrorists to gain entry into the country and commit acts of terror. It is not that the government will give amnesty to terrorists, but if the flow of immigration rapidly expands, it makes it easier for terrorists to gain entry by falling under the radar of a government that is trying to deal with a massive influx of immigrants.
Disease. The argument here is that immigrants will bring foreign diseases with them, increasing the transmission of disease and threatening the health of the current population. While this argument is reasonable, you have to be careful what evidence you use when you are making it. Some of the evidence sounds somewhat racist -- "immigrants widely infected with disease."
Fairness. There are two components to this argument: A) Those who came here illegally should be penalized and not rewarded with amnesty; B) Only individuals who pay into social services through taxation should be eligible to receive them.
Backlash/hate crimes. The argument here is that people will backlash against expanded waves of immigrants and that the immigrants will become victims of hate crimes and targeted reductions in social services.
-- Immigration is good
Economy. There are a number of reasons that expanded immigration is arguably good for the economy. One, increase the total number of people expands the total amount of economic activity. For example, in the last 20 years the U.S. population has started growing substantially in the south, particularly in areas like Las Vegas. This growth in the number of people did not slow down economy in the area, but increased it. Two, immigrants tend to be incredibly hard-working and are often quite entreprenurial The arguments that immigrants take jobs from Americans do not take into account the fact that more people expand that economic pie and that immigrants are usually very industrious and often entreprenurial.
There are a number of specific answers that can be made to the unemployment/low wages argument. One, U.S. workers still have an advantage because they are better educated and speak English. Two, immigrants will often do jobs that U.S. workers will not do. Three, If companies cannot access low wage workers in the U.S., they will offshore the jobs. Three, most studies conclude that this is false. At best, there is an insignificant effect. Four, low wages are due to a low minimum wage, not immigration. Fifth, low wages benefit consumers. Sixth, keeping wages low allows companies to free up money for investment, strengthening their companies and enabling them to hire more workers in the future.
Social services. Expanding the number of legal immigrants means that more of them will pay taxes, contributing to the tax base that funds the services.
Terrorism. Expanding amnesty could reduce the risks of terrorism. One, if those currently living illegally in the U.S. were now legally living in the U.S, there would be a massive drop in demand for forged documents. This drop in demand would generally undermine the forged document business and make it more difficult for terrorists to obtain these documents. Two, massive policing of the border creates trade-offs for the government: The more time, energy, and money that is invested in policing the border, the less time, energy, and money that is available for fighting terrorism. (Note: This resource trade-off is an argument against increasing enforcement even if increasing enforcement reduces immigration).
Environment. I think there are three ways to tackle the immigration hurts the environment argument. One, argue that as people's lives improve they have fewer children. This basic idea is referred to as the demographic transition, and evidence supporting this basic argument is outlined in this Malthus answers file. So, even if people in the U.S. tend to consumer more resources, there end up being fewer people to consume those greater resources. Two, you should essentially make what policy debaters refer to as an "intrinsicness" argument. You should argue that there are other approaches to improving the environment, such as tradeable permits that would solve the impact. Three, you argue that it is immoral to support the material deprivation of many so that a few can live a higher quality life. Four, you can indite the theory of human-induced climate change.
Fairness. The best way to answer the fairness argument is to put some conditions on the amnesty. For example, you could require all illegal immigrants to pay a fine.
*Can teams argue for specific control and amnesty measures?
That said, I think it is worth it to be as specific as you are able, particularly when arguing for enforcement. If you can isolate an enforcement program that you can win is effective if expanded, it will be hard for the other side to simply win that enforcement fails because you can argue that general criticism doesn't apply to your specific program.
When arguing for enforcement, you should be sure to contrast enforcement with amnesty, and argue that amnesty will radically increase immigration even if enforcement is problematic. The economy and terrorism arguments will likely have a lot of salience with your audience.
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